The polarisation in Egypt centres on Islamist supporters on the one hand and Islamist opponents, headed by the army, on the other, and the country is split between them. The tensions here are visible in other Arab states in the region, where the Brotherhood gained power in the uprisings two years ago and where a backlash is very possible: it is a volatile and critical situation, calling for wise leadership and a unity of approach from the outside world.
In bygone days, diplomatic intervention by western leaders headed up by the USA could have contained the violence and assisted the path to a peaceful solution in a troubled country, but the balance of power has shifted so much that a recent American attempt to mediate in Egypt had to be sponsored by Quetta and Arab organisations as the only way to be heard: western involvement is not just unwanted, it is disliked, unless it is in the form of money or arms – the legacy of many decades of interference.
So, today, there is a unity of concern being expressed in Washington, London and the EU over the violence in Egypt, but it is cautiously expressed for fear of inflaming anti-western feelings, and also because criticism would make no difference. The dangers resulting from a destabilised Middle East are great, and with the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks under way, it is a sensitive time in which anything could happen. Western leaders do not wish to be drawn into the conflicts but they want them to stop – they have lost their voice and many of their listeners, however.
The balance of global power is changing, diplomatically, militarily ecomomically, also ethnically, and once again religious fundamentalism is at the heart of many of the challenges. While change can be difficult, it is an opportunity to accept the revised roles, all of them, and to help rebuild shattered communities in a spirit of inclusiveness and equality, in the new world which is being created now. Egypt can be the road to harmony through conflict, but it is sad that the conflict has to be so very painful for so many.
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G'day, Claire!
I reiterate my opinion that the Egyptian military are attempting to take a leaf from modern Turkeys founder, Kemal Ataturk. The big problem for them is that the Muslim Brotherhood had been to ground in Egypt and the Middle East for literally decades, and this has allowed them to become so well organised that it makes an organisation like Hezbollah in Lebanon look like a poker in comparison.
Suffice it to say that Egyptian military has its work cut out for it. Having lived in Turkey in the 1980's when the Turkish military was in charge and did indeed hand power back to civilians after I'd left, the Egyptian military at least has a constructive example to follow. It's just going to take a whilie for the legacy of the Muslim Brotherhood to be purged - and it will be bloody difficult indeed.