Migration, and the Law of Unintended Consequences

In military terms, tactics are actions taken to implement a strategic plan devised to take into account existing factors, long and short term objectives, and likely outcomes. Unfortunately, in Syria and the wider Middle East we are witnessing tactics being deployed - or not – without a considered strategy, and the consequences are being seen vividly. Without a careful plan behind them, ill-thought-through tactics can be disastrous, and lead to the tragedies we are seeing now in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and many other countries in the region. The repercussions of careless, thoughtless planning are evident in Europe too, not just in the problems of managing large immigrant numbers, but also in integrating very different cultures and religions. I wonder how many politicians in Germany, for example, considered beforehand the likely result of the arrival of thousands of young men with nothing to do, uncomfortable, angry and frustrated by disappointed expectations? The tragedy in all the countries that have taken in large number of refugees or migrants is that the genuinely desperate and needy families and also well-intentioned young people are overshadowed by those who abuse the hospitality of their hosts. Furthermore, an even greater tragedy is that, in the large camps that are home to these ones, there are many instances of unaccompanied women and children being raped and attacked by some male migrants. They escaped one life of horror to find themselves in another. It is disturbing and shaming that it is allowed to occur, that it was not foreseen, and that the truth of what is happening is concealed under a veil of political correctness, and perhaps embarrassment and impotence. In Syria, long-needed publicity about the plight of the starving victims of an endless conflict is bringing some relief to them, and the belated publicity about the Cologne attacks is allowing the truth about the problems of the mass migration to begin to be known. The sad but inescapable fact is that, because there was no global strategy and response to the Syrian conflict when it began, nor a strategy, European and beyond, to anticipate and manage the likelihood of an exodus from these damaged lands, we are in a position whereby the conflict itself has become hugely complex, and the issue for Europe about the integration of the new migrants is most problematic as well as being very divisive. A strategy for both situations seems very far away. It may be now that the tragedies of the victims, of whatever nationality, will force our leaders to learn from the consequences of their actions, and do something substantial and in unity about it, for the sake of all of us.   [byline]]]>